Saturday, September 13, 2008

GOP Invents a New Junk Science: 'Galaxy Warming'!

by Len Hart, the Existentialist Cowboy

The GOP is prepared to embrace all kinds of junk science if it will get them off the hook for supporting industries, technologies and politicians that support disastrous but profitable policies. These deniers of 'global warming' have more than money riding on their attempts to discredit science.

They will deny 'global warming' for the threat it poses to their investments and for the psychological threat it represents to their self-esteem, their ideologies, myths, lies and shibboleths. To this end, 'deniers of global warming', primarily the GOP, have invented an entirely new phenomenon: galaxy warming. Not content to blame the victim, they will blame the universe!

My article Sarah Palin Denies Global Warming, Says Polar Bears Not Endangered drew the following comment on another forum:
I find this global warming thing a bit humorus [sic] at times. The whole galaxy is warming up, it has very little to nothing to do with our use of gasoline or coal, it has to do with changes on the sun.
This is a perfect example of how self-styled debunkers of 'junk science have succumbed to 'junk science. Even if the galaxy were heating up, it would have little if no effect on earth. Global warming is here and now. This is not the first time the GOP has tried to invent an entirely new phenomenon. Our 'junk scientist' asserts that what we call 'global warming can be attributed to two causes: 1) the Galaxy; 2) the sun.

Let's consider the 'sun' first. Certainly, the sun warms the earth and, if the sun suddenly winked out, the earth would get very, very cold very quickly.

The sun is not getting warmer, rather, it is cooling as it runs out of hydrogen. Scientists expect that in about 5 billion years, our sun will have become a red giant. As a 'red giant, it may swallow up many planets now in orbit, unless their orbits expand to accommodate a much, much bigger sun.
When the Sun becomes a red giant it will steadily lose mass and affect the orbits of the planets, making it hard to predict what will happen to them. Scientists think it is likely that Mercury and Venus will evaporate as the Sun’s surface expands outwards, but the fate of Earth is less certain.
--PhysicsWord.com, Earth could survive a red-giant Sun
Let's take the sun out of the equation. The nearest star to earth is Proxima Centauri, about 4.2 light years from earth. On a very clear night, far, far from city lights you might seek out Proxima Centauri with a good pair of 10x50 binoculars and a very steady tripod. Serious amateur astronomers will have a reflecting telescope, a steady mount and a clock drive. It is highly doubtful that the amount of 'heat' from Proxima Centauri on earth is measurable and certainly not in our life times.

Radiation causing 'heat' will dissipate rapidly with distance in accordance with the inverse square law. In other words, heat felt on earth from outer space is inversely proportional to the square of the distance from the source of any radiation. Consider how infinitesimal the energy reaching earth from stars about 100,000 light years or farther from earth! Even if interstellar heat arrives in our lifetimes, it may be be immeasurable.

Nothing travels faster than light. If there are any changes whatsoever in the Galaxy, it's gonna be a long, long, long time before any changes are felt whatsoever. What we know of the center of our galaxy now is really all about what it looked like some 1,400 years ago. That applies to heat, or more properly, the radiation causing heat, indeed, the entire spectrum. Portions of the galaxy could be exploding right now, releasing enormous amounts of radiation of various sorts, and we would not know about it for another 1,400 years, the distance from the sun to the center of the galaxy.
Moreover, National Geographic reports that "...Sunspots alter the amount of energy Earth gets from the sun, but not enough to impact global climate change. See: National Geographic: Don't Blame Sun for Global Warming:
Sunspot-driven changes to the sun's power are simply too small to account for the climatic changes observed in historical data from the 17th century to the present, research suggests.
The difference in brightness between the high point of a sunspot cycle and its low point is less than 0.1 percent of the sun's total output.
"If you run that back in time to the 17th century using sunspot records, you'll find that this amplitude variance is negligible for climate," Foukal said.
--National Geographic, Don't Blame Sun for Global Warming, Study Says
I am of the opinion that the sun has become a convenient 'fall guy' for a political mindset that seeks out 'fall guys' to cover its own inadequacies.
I think some people have suggested that increasing solar intensity over millennia. But it seems to be the consensus that the current warming can’t be explained by observed changes in the sun. I’ll quote from something I wrote on another blog:
http://futuregeek.blogspot.com/2006/07/5-global-warming-myths-debunked.html

From a 2003 Science Daily article NASA Study Finds Increasing Solar Trend That Can Change Climate:
“Although the inferred increase of solar irradiance in 24 years, about 0.1 percent, is not enough to cause notable climate change, the trend would be important if maintained for a century or more. Satellite observations of total solar irradiance have obtained a long enough record (over 24 years) to begin looking for this effect.” (emphasis mine)
Note that we are only at the beginning stages, and there is not conclusive evidence of any significant solar effect. If the observed changes had been consistent over a century, they could have contributed a small amount to global warming. Indeed, the scientist who performed the study said: “Solar forcing would provide only about one-fourth as much warming [as GHG], if the solar trend persists over the same period. Solar forcing could be significant, but not dominant.” Quoted from here.
Another science daily article, dated 1999, mentions a study that concludes that the sun does indeed affect Earth’s climate.
But: According to Shindell, the new study also confirms that changing levels of energy from the sun are not a major cause of global warming…. The GISS model agrees that the solar increases do not have the ability to cause large global temperature increases, leading Shindell to conclude that greenhouse gasses are indeed playing the dominant role.”\
If you’re still not convinced, back to the NAS report on Surface Temperature Reconstructions I quoted above: “The rising temperatures observed since 1978 are particularly noteworthy because the rate of increase is so high and because, during the same period, the energy reaching the Earth from the Sun had been measured precisely enough to conclude that Earth’s warming was not due to changes in the Sun.”
          --William Wilson, posting on: Why Nature Matters
When the sun becomes a red giant and absorbs the orbits of Mercury, Venus, Earth and Mars, the orbit of Earth --at 1.5 AU distant --will no longer be habitable. By that time, however, space travel may have become routine. Like an old sci-fi flick of the 50s, mankind may simply migrate to a a new frontier, an 'undiscovered country' estimated to stretch 'well into the Kuiper Belt'. A very, very ancient history will repeat itself as icy worlds melt like an older earth emerged from an ice age. The new residents will not find woolly mammoths as did their ancient ancestors on earth but they may very well find water beyond the orbit of Pluto.
Back to the question. will the Earth survive? According to Schroder and Smith, the answer is no. Even though the Earth could expand to an orbit 50% larger than today's orbit, it won't get the chance. The expanding Sun will engulf the Earth just before it reaches the tip of the red giant phase. And the Sun would still have another 0.25 AU and 500,000 years to grow.
Once inside the Sun's atmosphere, the Earth will collide with particles of gas. Its orbit will decay, and it will spiral inward.
If the Earth were just a little further from the Sun, at 1.15 AU, it would be able to survive the expansion phase. Although it's science fiction, the authors suggest that future technologies could be used to speed up the Earth's spiraling outward from the Sun.
I'm not sure why, but thinking about this far future of the Earth gives an insight into human psychology. People are genuinely worried about a future billions of years away. Even though the Earth will be scorched much sooner, its oceans boiled away, and turned into a molten ball of rock, it's this early destruction by the Sun that feels so sad. 
--Universe Today, Will Earth Survive When the Sun Becomes a Red Giant?
If we are genuinely concerned about a future billions of years distant, then why are we so myopically unconcerned about what we do to earth today? If we cannot accept responsibility for what we have done to earth today, what hope is there that we might effect a futuristic salvation some billions years distant? That seems to be the idea. If the GOP mindset can convince you to believe in 'galaxy warming', they are off the hook for several billion years. As a propaganda technique, that beats even 'supply side economics' and 'no child left behind'.

An after thought --this is not the first time the GOP has tried to rewrite physics.
Scientists can finally explain why the Twin Towers collapsed on September 11, despite the temperature of the fires being well below the 1,500C melting point of the steel girders holding up the buildings.
The discovery that unusual magnetic forces within the girders made them weak at temperatures of about 500C explains away the conspiracy theories that have spread like wildfire since the disaster.
--Magnetic forces to blame for 9/11 tower collapse,independent.co.uk
Ummmmmm 'unusual magnetic forces' eh? Nah...methinks, it ware the li'l people who live in the woods! Aaaaaaaaaarrgh! It ware the li'l people who did it!

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13 comments:

tiago said...

Len;
I am not eloquent enough to express my thoughts for lack of attention to ‘global warming’. I know that some people’s attitude about the subject is; ‘life is short, carpe diem. That is some one else’s problem’, (why do they hate their children?). Or, ‘with all the problems I face, you expect me to worry about ‘global warming’, (Putting food on the table and keeping gas in the car are more pressing issues).
To some; to look at all the future problems, makes you a pessimist. An optimist says we will face that hurdle when we come to it. (To me, this is like using a band aid to close an opening left by major surgery.)
Another problem with addressing ‘global warming’ is people’s attention spans, (and mine is not all that great, I keep seeing tangents. Or, some would say my mind wanders).
And the final problem is people’s helplessness. (I am afraid I fall into this category.)
One thought on your article though, is about:
“The sun is not getting warmer. It is, in fact, cooling as it runs out of hydrogen.”
To burn, (rapid oxidation), anything, you need three things; fuel, oxygen, and heat. One of the by products of a fire is water, (that is the reason cars exhaust systems are made of stainless steel now). Burning hydrogen creates water, (H2O). Heat, in turn will evaporate the water and break it down into its elements; hydrogen and oxygen. How can the sun run out of hydrogen?

Unknown said...

tiago...

Burning hydrogen creates water, (H2O). Heat, in turn will evaporate the water and break it down into its elements; hydrogen and oxygen. How can the sun run out of hydrogen?

The sun doesn't 'burn' hydrogen. It 'fuses' hydrogen atoms which become helium atoms. The sun is just a huge nuclear reactor producing incredible amounts of energy in the process.

Theoretically, all the hydrogen will have been fused (used up) and, thus, no more nuclear fusion. As I mentioned in the article, the surface of the sun will expand, becoming a red giant. As the surface expands, the core will eventually collapse as 'fuel' is spent. There are several scenarios depending upon the mass of the star. In one, the dying star blows off its spent 'shell' becoming a super nova. What is left is a dark core collapsing as a black hole.

Anonymous said...

These Republicans have become crazier than a pack of shithouse rats. What a crock of shit!

SadButTrue said...

There's a reason that the dark ages coincided with Christian hegemony in Europe and the Mediterranean. When you rely on a myth that is contrary to logic you find yourself becoming hostile to logic.

Unknown said...

Excellent analogy, Sad. We are heading for a new dark age. The Christian religion never embraced science; it merely tolerated it when it had to, but repressed it ruthlessly whenever it could get away with it.

The GOP has made the faustian bargain with fundamentalist Christianity. No critical thinker, no one of intellect is safe. The acceptance of ideology is a surgery-free lobotomy.

I recommend that we all fight back. I will not go quietly into that 'good' night for the sake of an idiot's lies. Nor should anyone else.

Anonymous said...

"The GOP has made the faustian bargain with fundamentalist Christianity. No critical thinker, no one of intellect is safe. The acceptance of ideology is a surgery-free lobotomy" - LH

Len, it is evident most Americans fail, even at this point in time to realize the "system" has failed them. The GOP have been the ones that have really accelerated the Christianist movement into MS politics, but ultimately it has been the "system" that has now accepted this bargain, to keep the peace, to keep the economic machine rolling...no matter what it takes. If people understood the ramifications of this church/state mingling, they would be outraged, but apparently most will chose to ignore it, we will see how well that works when they are being tasered & water-boarded. Excellent posts as usual, you can lead a dumb son of a bitch to the facts, but you can't make them comprehend them... what this country needs is boat-load of smelling salts...and pronto.

benmerc

Omyma said...

The GOP has been waging a War on Science, and has made some headway, as your great post shows. This is one reason the US level of education in science is below that of other countries, such as India. And what passes for "entertainment" actually helps to dumb-down the populace, making "heroes" out of idiots, and "enemies" out of intelligent people. It makes climate change denial and its proponent, Sarah Palin, somehow seem "courageously individualistic", as if science were part of some cabalistic totalitarian Threat to that knee-jerk idea of "security"/familiarity.

It's the "heroism" of denial, and of fighting The Unfamiliar such as Islam - ooooooh, they're under every unchecked bedframe, making bombs. Meanwhile, Bush sucks away every individual right and freedom they claim "the terrorists hate."

Unknown said...

benmerc sez...

Len, it is evident most Americans fail, even at this point in time to realize the "system" has failed them.

Often, however, that failure is deliberate! It is no accident that as fundamentalism grows stronger, education declines. Take the 'state' of education in the 'state' of Texas, for example. Thanks to the back to back idiocy of folk like George W. Bush and his idiot replacement, Rick Perry, Texas recently beat out Mississippi for DEAD LAST in Education. Now --that's quite a dubious achievement.

But among many in the Christian right it is 1) cause for celebration that a 'secular' system is failing; 2) evidence that 'faith-based' programs or, perhaps even better, the financing of Church schools with pubic monies is a better alternative. For them, it's motivation to peddle 'faith-based' initiatives --violations of the separation of church and state, interestingly, another concept that appears no longer to be taught in schools.

In any case, I will never believe that the deterioration of public education in 'fundamentalist' dominated states is a coincidence. Education, enlightenment, science, logic have ALWAYS been branded enemies of 'the Church' by the church at least since Catholics burned Giordano Bruno and persecuted Galileo. In England, Protestants were persecuted by Catholics under Mary, and vice versa under Elizabeth. I know what Shakespeare REALLY meant when he wrote: "A plague o' both your houses!"

If people understood the ramifications of this church/state mingling, they would be outraged, but apparently most will chose to ignore it, we will see how well that works when they are being tasered & water-boarded.

The life and times of William Shakespeare may prove to be a guide. It was a time of great division throughout English society. Shakespeare's own cousin was drawn and quartered at Tyburn (now called 'Marble Arch') because he would not renounce the 'old faith' (Catholicism). Earlier, however, it was protestants who were burned by Mary. As the GOP leans increasingly toward theocracy, 'learned' folk are endangered.

Omyma said...

This is one reason the US level of education in science is below that of other countries, such as India. And what passes for "entertainment" actually helps to dumb-down the populace, making "heroes" out of idiots, and "enemies" out of intelligent people.

Excellent point! So many American 'heroes' are, really, dumbasses. The great series of Speilberg films are a notable exception. Indiana Jones was as smart as the whip he wielded to great effect in 'Raiders of the Lost Ark'. I was sure the film would fail. After all, I thought, how many folk would go to a film about an archaeologist in search of an artifact that less than 10 percent of the American people had ever heard of of. [that's excluding the Jewish community, of course]

Certainly --mass media has deteriorated dramatically in my life time. I recall watching --on a grainy black and white TV set --folk like Eric Severeid and Edward Murrow discussing real issues. A series called "You Are There" re-enacted historical events with CBS news folk covering them. I will never forget a CBS News Correspondent doing a 'stand up' at the burning of Jeanne d'Arc. On Sunday afternoons, I was tutored in music theory by Leonard Bernstein who played the Golliwogg's Cakewalk on the Piano. Here's a link to Tommy Emmanuels' version

Bernstein conducted Debussy's 'La Mer' on the same program, as I recall. He brought to his lectures on Jazz and Gershwin, the same intellect and talent that he brought to his discussions of Hindemith and John Cag. Incredible stuff!

It was on the hit series 'Route 66' that I first heard the word 'Existentialism'. It sent me to the local library in search of more information. Today --I would just 'google it'. And everyone's favorite --Star Trek --was almost the equal to 'Twilight Zone' in terms of its enlightened treatment of issues like 'race' and 'equality'. Several generations owe a lot to Rod Serling and Gene" Roddenberry. I would trade ten million George W. Bushs for one of them. Your next comment is the reason:

Meanwhile, Bush sucks away every individual right and freedom they claim "the terrorists hate."

I grew up at a time when new technologies --like TV, micro-electronics, space exploration, and computer technology --held out the promise of a new Renaissance. Thanks to the GOP, we are, instead, on the brink of a new dark age.

Anonymous said...

"In any case, I will never believe that the deterioration of public education in 'fundamentalist' dominated states is a coincidence" - LH


I copy that...
Florida, like Texas, after our 8 yrs of jeb! (the other pnac bush) and two years with his hand-puppet smilin' Charlie, we in Florida are rounding the same bend as your educational stats. It is amazing how fast the voucher track these neo-cons pushed, ended in failure...yet the effort persists, certainly they continue to strangle education with fiscal starvation. I also agree, they are all for a "dumb" populace...no doubt about that, between the ignorance, the police and the pulpit, the ruling class handlers will have it made. Hell, what we may be morphing into could make Orwell's world seem appealing...

benmerc

Unknown said...

benmerc sez...

Hell, what we may be morphing into could make Orwell's world seem appealing...

You could be right! Clearly --the US has learned nothing from Orwell's work, a work that every other cautionary tale is measured against.

I supposed I was lucky to have gotten a public education before it was politicized by the right wing, made a scapegoat for their own failures, idiocies, and intolerance.

I had always hoped that if I respected the rights of others, they would respect mine as well.

I was wrong!

Anonymous said...

Len, this is an unrelated issue but Anonymous Liberal has a remarkable story.

The command center of "the president's program," as Addington usually called it, was not in the White House. Its controlling documents, which gave strategic direction to the nation's largest spy agency, lived in a vault across an alley from the West Wing -- in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building, on the east side of the second floor, where the vice president headquartered his staff.

The vault was in EEOB 268, Addington's office. Cheney's lawyer held the documents, physical and electronic, because he was the one who wrote them. New forms of domestic espionage were created and developed over time in presidential authorizations that Addington typed on a Tempest-shielded computer across from his desk.

It is unlikely that the history of U.S. intelligence includes another operation conceived and supervised by the office of the vice president. White House Chief of Staff Andrew H. Card Jr. had "no idea," he said, that the presidential orders were held in a vice presidential safe. . . .

Though the president had the formal say over who was "read in" to the domestic surveillance program, Addington controlled the list in practice, according to three officials with personal knowledge. White House counsel Alberto R. Gonzales was aware of the program, but was not a careful student of the complex legal questions it raised. In its first 18 months, the only other lawyer who reviewed the program was John Yoo.

.....This surveillance program was run entirely out of the Vice President's office. Even the President's chief of staff hadn't seen the orders and didn't know where they were kept. And virtually all of the administration's top lawyers, including the Attorney General and the lawyers at the NSA and CIA were kept entirely out of the loop.


Cheney, not Bush, has been running US intelligence.

Unknown said...

Thanks for the link, damien. Am reading it now. To be honest, I can't say that I am surprised.

I am also inclined to believe that Dick Cheney was the real 'president'. The moron was just a stooge. Who can forget that he used a 'wire' at his debate with Kerry! He actually just froze unspeaking, motionless for what seemed like an eternity while the puppeteers back stage got their stories straight.

The American people should have risen up at the time en masse to yell: FRAUD FRAUD FRAUD!

Anonymous said...

As usual, I am jumping up and down too much. The threat of mass resignations from the Justice Dept over the domestic surveillance program has been known for some time and I read the details way back. I guess what shocked me here was (1) what seemed to be a public admission that Presidential directives were being manufactured and stored by Cheney's lawyer, David Addington; and (2) a similarly public admission that both Bush and his senior advisers were being kept out of the loop by Cheney and Addington on the domestic surveillance program. The Washington Post article is here. None of this will get through to the US public. It's a joke, isn't it?